Badenoch, Tugendhat and Patel face Tory leadership blow with key allies set to lose seats
The future of the Conservative party leadership could be heavily dependent on the result of next week’s general election – with a number of contenders to replace Rishi Sunak likely to lose key Commons allies, according to i analysis.
Possible leadership candidates including Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel and Tom Tugendhat may be left without their existing supporters if current polling proves accurate.
Active maneouvring for the leadership is understood to be largely on hold during the general election, despite the expectation in Westminster that Rishi Sunak will resign if the forecast from opinion polls of a heavy Conservative defeat comes true on 4 July.
“No one knows who’s going to survive,” one MP told i. There is also uncertainty over how long any leadership election would take – previous Tory contests after a general election defeat have varied from three to six months – and whether it would use the same rules as before, which see MPs vote to choose a shortlist of two candidates, with party members having the final say between them.
Most of those who are tipped to stand for the leadership this time also ran in 2022, when Liz Truss defeated Mr Sunak, or considered a run before deciding against it.
Research by i has identified half a dozen of the earliest backers of Ms Badenoch, Suella Braverman, Mr Tugendhat, Penny Mordaunt and Ms Patel and examined whether they are likely to keep their seat in Parliament according to the in-depth MRP polls published in recent weeks.
Having allies in Parliament not only makes it more likely that a candidate will reach the last two, it also helps them lobby to build a base of support among other MPs and party activists.
Enthusiastic supporters are deployed to make the case for a candidate in the media, and having a base of endorsements you can announce in a rolling fashion creates a sense of momentum that can be crucial in a leadership race.
Ms Badenoch, the Business Secretary who is bookmakers’ favourite to lead the party, is considered highly likely to hold on in North West Essex. But of her top supporters only Alex Burghart is on track for a comfortable victory in his own seat with Julia Lopez and Eddie Hughes hanging in the balance, and Lee Rowley, Neil O’Brien and Tom Hunt all on course to be beaten by Labour.
Security Minister Mr Tugendhat, who has repeatedly refused to rule out another leadership bid, can expect to see his allies Neil Hudson and Paul Holmes returned to the Commons next week. But Damian Green, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Karen Bradley and Robert Largan are among allies of his who are projected to lose.
Ms Patel, the ex-Home Secretary, did not stand for the leadership last time but was urged to make a tilt for it by a number of colleagues. Of those Greg Smith is expected to keep his seat and Kevin Foster looks 50/50, but Tom Pursglove, Anna Firth, Andrea Jenkyns and Shaun Bailey are all likely to be defeated.
If Ms Braverman, another former Home Office chief, decides to stand again she may be able to count on the support of Sir Desmond Swayne, Sir John Hayes and Danny Kruger. But other supporters including Miriam Cates, Steve Baker and Jason McCartney are not expected to win their bids for re-election.
Ms Mordaunt, the Leader of the House of Commons, was the only person apart from Mr Sunak to stand in both Tory leadership elections of 2022. MRP polls appear to show her heading for defeat in her own Portsmouth North seat; if she does return to Parliament and seek the leadership again, she is likely to be joined by her backers John Lamont, Alicia Kearns and Harriett Baldwin, with Michael Fabricant and Kieran Mullan facing tight races and Theo Clarke on course to lose her seat.
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps is another possible future leader who is not certain of returning to Parliament next week, with polls showing Labour ahead in his Welwyn Hatfield constituency. Of the five Tory MPs who backed him for the leadership in 2022 before he dropped out, two have stood down and the other three – Robert Courts, Graham Stuart and Sheryll Murray – all face a close race for re-election.
James Cleverly and Robert Jenrick, the other two MPs who are often spoken of as leadership contenders, did not seek the top job last time and so it is unclear who their backers would be in the event they decided to make a run this year.
Tory MPs have said privately they will spend the final days of the general election campaign pushing to limit the scale of losses rather than realistically seeking a Commons majority. One minister said: “I’m finding we can convert those tempted with Reform back to Conservative with a conversation and when they realise it will just let Labour in – because there is no love for Labour anywhere, even if there is also a lot of frustration with us. But you need to have a lot of conversations and that is very, very time consuming and takes a lot of work.”
An MP in a “red wall” seat added: “Some of the Reform former Conservatives are noticeably softening and coming back to us. I’m heading for defeat, obviously – but not a rout. I still think we’ll get about 150 seats.”
Many Westminster observers have long predicted that the next Tory leader would come from the right of the party, in a rejection of Mr Sunak’s approach. But one MP insisted that a more centrist figure like Mr Tugendhat could unite the party, saying that activists “just want a no-nonsense military guy” and adding: “There are fewer Brexit members since Boris has gone.”
Victoria Atkins, the Health Secretary, is seen as another possible contender, the MP said: “We don’t want to go too far right. We need someone decent, reliable, who will motivate and get things done.”
If the Prime Minister did quit the leadership next week, it remains uncertain whether he would continue in a caretaker capacity or hand over to an interim leader such as his deputy, Oliver Dowden, while a permanent replacement is chosen.
