When are the general election results expected? Estimated timings for every constituency

With polling stations for the 2024 general election opening at 7am today, Thursday 4 July, and closing at 10pm, the UK will soon learn who it has elected to form its new government as results trickle in overnight.

Though Labour is widely predicted to win with an historic majority, pre-election polling suggests more than 100 seats could still be up for grabs while there are also several political big beasts at risk of losing their seats.

As voters flock polling booths throughouts the country, i breaks down the estimated timings of when general election results are expected in every constituency.

What happens on election night?

As polling stations close at 10pm on election night, pollsters will begin forecasting the outcome of the general election in the hour or so before the first results are declared.

The earliest results are expected to come in around 11.30pm on Thursday, with the number of result declarations slowly increasing into the early hours of Friday before a flurry of results is forecast as the morning goes on.

You’ll also be able to follow i‘s election live blog for results and analysis as everything unfolds.

10pm

The first indicator of the outcome of the election before any official results are announced will be the exit poll, to be published around 10pm as poll stations close and will be shared by the BBC, ITV and Sky.

Exit polls are surveys conducted outside polling stations at 144 constituencies across the UK on election day, where voters are asked at random to cast a second, replica ballot as they leave in order for an estimate to be made of how many seats each political party will win in the House of Commons.

The results of the exit poll have generally be very accurate in recent history – for example, at the 2005 and 2010 elections, the number of seats for the largest party was predicted without error.

Professor Sir John Curtice, leader of the academic team that produces the exit poll, told The Daily Telegraph: “The record isn’t perfect, but since 2005 the exit poll has given a pretty good indication of where the result will end up on the night.

“It also tends to be more accurate than opinion polls carried out before voting happens.”

11pm-1am

Few results are currently estimated to come in before 1am, but those that do should include the new constituency of Blyth and Ashington, as well as Houghton and Sunderland South.

Both of those are projected to declare their results before midnight, with a handful of others projected to follow between 12.15am and 1am including Sunderland Central, Rutherglen, Tynemouth and Wigan.

1am-3am

A slow but steady stream of results is then expected over the following few hours.

They could include a couple of possible upsets and notable seat changes in the likes of Swindon North and Rochdale.

3am-5am

The vast majority of results are expected to pour in between the hours of 3am and 5am.

Over 500 of the 650 constituencies are projected to have declared their results by 5am on 5 July, with more than 400 of those expected to come in this two-hour block.

These hours will reveal the fates of several big political players from various parties, as well as giving a sense of how each party has performed in key seats across the UK.

5am-7am

Most if not all of the remaining results are then expected to be declared by 7am on 5 July – meaning that as many Britons begin their morning commute, we should know the make-up of our new government.

When are the general election results expected for each constituency?

Below you can find a list of the projected results declaration times for every constituency, as well as an hour-by-hour breakdown of when some potentially significant or notable results are expected.

10pm

The exit poll should be published around 10pm, as polling stations close.

It will be shared on major news channels including the BBC, Sky and ITV.

11pm

The first two sets of constituency results are set to be declared around 11.30pm on 4 July.

Those are the North-East England, Labour-held seats of Blyth and Ashington and Houghton and Sunderland South

12 midnight

The results from Basildon and Billericay in Essex, where Conservative party chairman Richard Holden was controversially selected to stand for the Tories despite spending the last five years as MP for North West Durham – almost 300 miles away – are expected around 12.15am.

Swindon South – currently held by former justice secretary Sir Robert Buckland but under threat from Labour – is expected to be one of the first battleground seats of the night and should also declare around 12.15am

Labour should also begin to learn if it has managed to win back some of the ‘Red Wall‘ seats it lost in 2019. These include Cramlington and Killingworth, which should declare around 12.45am and covers much of the former constituency of Blyth Valley won by Tory candidate Ian Levy in 2019 by just over 700 votes.

1am

Rutherglen is understood to be a key target for Labour in Scotland in its hopes to win over SNP voters, and is set to declare results around 1am.

Another Labour/SNP battleground, Hamilton and Clyde Valley, is expected to declare around 1.45am, just after East Kilbride and Strathaven, which should come in around 1.30am.

Swindon North, where polls suggest Labour candidate Will Stone could defeat incumbent Tory ex-minister and former deputy party chair Justin Tomlinson, is expected to declare its results around 1.45am.

2am

Among the ‘ones-to-watch’ results here is Rochdale, which is set to declare around 2.30am whether George Galloway has successfully defended his seat against Labour candidate and political journalist Paul Waugh.

That’s also when the result should come in for Holborn and St Pancras, where Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is standing, as well as the Tory-held Cannock Chase, in which a Labour win – requiring a 21.5-percentage point swing – could be among the first indicators of a landscape victory for the Opposition.

3am

Around 3.30am is when Jeremy Hunt will learn whether or not he has become the first sitting Chancellor in history to lose his seat at a general election.

Mr Hunt is standing in the new constituency of Godalming and Ash, where the Liberal Democrats have made steady gains over the past few elections. The Chancellor’s majority was cut from over 21,000 to just under 9,000 in his previous seat of South West Surrey between 2017 and 2019.

Other Cabinet members also potentially at risk and awaiting their fates around that time are the likes of Defence Secretary Grant Shapps (Welwyn Hatfield), Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt (Portsmouth North), Education Secretary Gillian Keegan (Chichester), Transport Secretary Mark Harper (Forest of Dean), Veterans Affairs Minister Johnny Mercer (Plymouth Moor View) and Minister for “common sense” Esther McVey (Tatton).

Justice Secretary Alex Chalk should hear of the results in his seat of Cheltenham around 3am, with the results for Caerfyrddin, where Chief Whip Simon Hart is the incumbent, expected around 3.15am.

The latter is also when Labour’s Thangam Debbonaire will learn if she has held her Bristol Central seat against Greens co-leader Carla Denyer, who is aiming to become her party’s second-ever MP.

Meanwhile, former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith will find out around 3am if he has managed to hold the Chingford and Woodford Green seat that has been his since 1997.

Former home secretary Suella Braverman will also hear around that time if she is to remain in the Commons representing Fareham and Waterlooville.

Some more Red Wall seats that Labour will hope to have reclaimed include Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes and Scunthorpe, which are set to declare at 3am and 3.15am, respectively.

3am is also when former Labour leader and now independent candidate Jeremy Corbyn will learn if he has held onto his Islington North seat.

In Scotland, the Lib Dems are fighting to win back Mid Dunbartonshire, the seat of former party leader Jo Swinson which she lost at the 2019 general election, and will learn how they’ve gotten on around 3.30am.

4am

This hour is another big one for several key political figures, including Rishi Sunak.

The Prime Minister will learn his fate in the new constituency of Richmond and Northallerton around 4am, the same time as when Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is expected to hear whether he has won in Clacton to grab a seat in parliament on his eighth attempt.

Home Secretary James Cleverly (Braintree) and Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride (Central Devon) should also both learn of the results in their respective constituencies around 4am, as well as former home secretary Priti Patel, who is under threat due to tactical voting in Witham.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, standing in the North East Somerset and Hanham constituency which should declare around 4.30am, has been predicted by some polls to be at risk of losing to Labour’s Dan Norris.

4.30am is also when results are expected for Ashfield, where former Tory deputy chair Lee Anderson has been predicted by some polls to be on track to hold his seat for Reform.

5am

Attorney General Victoria Prentis will find out around 5am whether she has held her seat in Banbury, the same time as when the winner of the Maidenhead seat of former prime minister Theresa May – who is not standing in this election – should be announced.

Also at 5am is the expected results declaration time for West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, where nuclear minister Andrew Bowie faces losing the seat he currently holds with a majority of just over 800 votes.

Meanwhile, 5.30am is when former prime minister Liz Truss should hear whether she has held her seat in South West Norfolk.

6am

Among the remaining constituencies currently expected to declare at or after 6am are all of Croydon East, Croydon South and Croydon West, as well as Wycombe, Huddersfield and both Ilford North and Ilford South.

7am

All 650 constituencies are currently projected to have declared their results by 7am.

The following map will begin to fill out with seat-by-seat results as they come in.

Meanwhile, as results are declared, the below graphic will begin to chart the change in the number of seats won by each party compared to the results of the last general election, back in 2019.