What to watch out for on election night
Welcome to Thursday’s Early Edition from i.
The pollsters have been saying it for some time, but now those in the party are even saying it themselves – it’s game over for the Tories. “One needs to read the writing on the wall – it’s over, and we need to prepare for the reality and frustration of opposition,” Suella Braverman boldly penned for the Telegraph some 24 hours before the polls even opened. Today is looking very likely to be the final day of Conservative rule after 14 years. For many, it will be a moment to reflect on the changes that have happened under the premierships of David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, (briefly) Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak. Austerity, Brexit, same-sex marriage, a turbulent economy, a crisis in the NHS, a rise in child poverty, a range changing of global threats, and a complicated record on crime and immigration are just some milestones of the Conservative record and legacy. The overall result from today’s election may be a foregone conclusion, but there are still a whole raft of key things to watch out for tonight and in the early hours of Friday. We’ll look at what they are< after the headlines.
Today’s news, and why it matters
Labour is set to win a historic landslide victory at the general election despite a slight recovery in the Conservatives’ position over the last days of the campaign, the final i pre-election poll suggests. The BMG Research survey conducted this week found that Sir Keir Starmer’s party has a 17-point lead over the Tories.
What Rwandans think Labour should do with migrant plan if it gets into power. “If the UK doesn’t want them they should send them to the first country they arrive in,” the Rwandan presidential candidate says.
How party leaders spent their final campaigning day as UK prepares for a new era. Farage goes boxing, Davey drives a Cadillac, Sunak visits the Tory heartlands while Starmer vies for Scotland.
‘I lost my job and was £3,000 in mortgage arrears – Nationwide tried to take my home’. i‘s Housing Correspondent spends the day at an ‘eviction’ court in Bradford, where homeowners have just minutes to argue their case.
Tim Parker, the former chairman of the Post Office, defended his role during his time at the organisation and issued an apology to the subpostmasters affected by the scandal during a hearing at the inquiry. Here’s four things we learned from his appearance.
The number of children waiting more than 12 hours in A&E has risen nine-fold in five years, official data obtained under freedom of information laws suggest. A total of 1,056 under-18s waited longer than 12 hours in 2023 at 29 acute NHS trusts in England that responded to the request for information, submitted by Labour, up from 116 in 2019.
The daughter of Captain Sir Tom Moore and her husband have been disqualified from being charity trustees after an investigation by a watchdog body. Captain Tom raised more than £38m for NHS Charities Together during the Covid pandemic by walking 100 laps of his patio at his Bedfordshire home before his 100th birthday.
5 things to watch on election night:
Big beasts losing their seats: The Portillo moment has become one of the most defining in British election history, when the Tory candidate was surprisingly defeated by Labour’s Stephen Twigg in a sign of Blair’s massive 1997 landslide. Now, the Tory party is bracing for several Portillo moments, with Tory big beasts direct in the firing line. Those could include Jacob Rees-Mogg, standing in North East Somerset and Hanham, who is at risk to Labour despite his near 15,000 majority in the equivalent seat at the 2019 election. Former prime minister Liz Truss is defending an even bigger majority of 26,000 in South West Norfolk, but some polls have suggested she could be unseated by Labour. Possibly the most at risk is Sir Iain Duncan Smith, former leader of the Tory party, who last won his Chingford and Woodford Green seat with a majority of just over 1,200 amid stiff competition from Labour. Read the whole piece here. And the Tory horror show doesn’t end there. One insider recently told i that Conservatives in safer seats may be more at risk from losing their seats on polling day than those defending narrower majorities. Tory candidates who won their seats with majorities of 5,000 and fewer are likely to have been campaigning hard since the last election and be more on top of the data in their constituencies, the source said. Read that, here.
Who will become the real opposition? Sir Ed Davey’s party has been pushing a tactical voting campaign to oust the Tories from their seats. That’s also been spurred on by the possibility that Reform could also pick up the votes of disaffected Conservative voters. While Nigel Farage’s party may be on track to win millions of votes, it’s unlikely to be replicated with many seats. However it’s a different story for the Lib Dems. One of the biggest gains of the night for the party could be Jeremy Hunt’s Godalming and Ash seat, as well Cheltenham and Chichester which are held by Cabinet ministers. As Luke Bailey explains here, the Lib Dems have been predicted to win 88 different seats by at at least one pollster, but they’re favoured in 61 overall – whether that remains enough to actually beat the Tories is entirely unclear at this stage. When it comes to forming an opposition, there is also another possibility, laid out by the FT’s Stephen Bush. He surmises that if the Tory party struggles to make a meaningful opposition in parliament it may consider joining forces with Reform. “If there is even one Reform MP in the Commons, the calls for a tie-up will be very strong,” he writes.
Bellwether seats: There are 10 constituencies broadly identified as markers of how the election is going. Basildon and Billericay, which is expected to declare early on, would mean Labour overturning a majority of more than 20,000 and a sign of what is to come. Swindon South, which is also likely to have a result by the very end of the night, is a traditional bellwether seat – since 1983 it has elected a candidate from the party which goes onto form the government. Watford, which has done the same since 1974, is expected in the early hours of Friday. Reuters has a full list here.
New records: Many records may be set tonight, but one of the most enduring could be how diverse the next cohort of MPs is. Analysis by i has revealed we are likely to see a record number of women, LGBT and ethnic minority MPs enter parliament. In 2010, less than a quarter of MPs were female, and by 2019 they made up just a third of the Commons. The country is set to get much closer to a 50/50 parliament after the election, with 41 per cent of MPs predicted to be women. The 2024 parliament is also set to be the “gayest ever” with a record number of MPs who openly identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) with at least 57 predicted to be elected, an increase of 12 from the 45 of 2019. Read the full piece here. Another record could well be set too, with predictions that Labour could make a history majority. Yesterday even Mel Stride was warning that tomorrow we are “highly likely to be in a situation where we have the largest majority that any party has ever achieved.”
Postal vote chaos causing challenges in the court: Several years ago the Electoral Commission warned of the risks of delayed postal votes, urging the government to “consider innovative new approaches to voting for overseas electors”. Earlier this week the Post Office minister urged Royal Mail to ensure the deadline for delivering ballots is met, after thousands of voters were waiting on missing packs. People who were only just receiving their votes had been told to take it to polling stations on election day to be counted, rather than risk sending it back by post, somewhat defeating the purpose of a postal vote. But the chaos could spell more pain down the line. The Telegraph reported that as many as one quarter of marginal constituencies have been affected by postal vote delays, and could see runners-up in tight races mount legal challenges – which would then result in a by-election. It quoted Tom Cross, a barrister at law firm 11KBW, who said: “We are in territory here from some of the reports where there may well be credible challenges, but it depends on the margin of victory.” The Times noted yesterday that such a scenario could rob Kemi Badenoch from making a Tory leadership bid, because she would be unable to do so if not installed as an MP.
Around the world
Chinese companies are reportedly working with Russian partners to develop an attack drone and plan to send the weapons to Moscow in a potential escalation of Beijing’s involvement in the war in Ukraine and breach of a red line.
Joe Biden has vowed to stay in the race for president, telling staff he is in it “to the end” amid growing pressure from Democrats to withdraw after a disastrous debate performance. “Let me say this as clearly as I possibly can as simply and straightforward as I can: I am running — no one’s pushing me out,” the US president said on a call with staffers from his reelection campaign.
The far right’s chances of winning a majority in France’s elections on Sunday have been dented after hundreds of candidates stood down in a tactical move – but experts say the National Rally party could still triumph. French voters head back to the polls for the second and final round of voting in parliamentary elections on Sunday.
Our beautiful Samya died in a 737 Max crash – Boeing must be prosecuted. Former US presidential candidate Ralph Nader is campaigning for justice over the airliner crash that killed his great-niece, Samya Stumo. He and her mother, Nadia Milleron, explain why they think Boeing must go on trial.
The world’s oldest known picture story is a cave painting almost 6,000 years older than the previous record holder, found about 10km away on the same island in Indonesia, an international team of archaeologists has said.
Thoughts for the day
Hurricane Beryl gives us a glimpse of the horror that awaits us. The climate crisis is not going anywhere, nor can we wash our hands of it, says Kuba Shand-Baptiste.
There is a mortgage scandal no one wants to talk about. There is now not one area in England which is affordable for a single woman to buy a home, explains Vicky Spratt.
Love Island shows our country is healing. The first really juicy series in years feels like a natural phenomenon, writes Emily Watkins.
Culture Break
Celia Imrie: Body dysmorphia never leaves you. I don’t like taking my clothes off. The star of ‘Calendar Girls’ and ‘Bridget Jones’ talks about her new novel, her childhood battle with anorexia and why she hates feeling trapped.
The Big Read
How right-wing newspapers changed their coverage as Tory campaign imploded. i takes a look at how newspapers tried to persuade you to vote in the 2024 election.
Sport
ITV’s referee expert Christina Unkel: ‘Abuse of Michael Oliver is mind-blowing’. The former referee tells i’s Sam Cunningham about her work at Euro 2024, the rise of female officials, and why Premier League managers are damaging the game.
Something to brighten your day
Parents embarrassing themselves at sports day is a vital life lesson for kids. Coming last or making no effort is not an option, writes Richard James.
